by vtexposfan » Sat May 05, 2012 1:20 am
KENTUCKY DERBY
Twenty horses in the main body of the field, one also eligible...and a set of past performances that look like the Tokyo subway map to my tired eyes. The one race of the year where the people in my life seek me out for advice...and I'm lost. I'm utterly lost. BODEMEISTER appears to tower over his foes on paper. The 108 Beyer Speed Figure that he posted while romping in the Arkansas Derby is six points better than the next highest figure that anybody in the field has posted. He has proven himself against foes that not only wintered in Arkansas, but was also only narrowly beaten by today's foe Creative Cause at Santa Anita. His most recent workout took place over a muddy strip, and he looked fine. Even the silly intangibles that people applies to Kentucky Derbies, such as time spent in the starting gate, is favorable, as he draws from post number six. The only question will be what happens if several horses to his outside manage to wall him off. One of the toughest things to do at Churchill Downs is wear down a good leader in the stretch. However, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER might be up to that task. He was able to nose favorite Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby, a track that didn't lend itself to many nose finishes this winter. It's been a long time since the Los Angeles contingent has donned the roses, but if things break right for this Doug O'Neill trainee, he might get a good crack at the leaders. My only question is to why he had his final works at Hollywood Park and not over the local strip. Another prep that has not turned out key in many years is New York's Wood Memorial. But if a horse that didn't race at age 2 has a chance, anything's possible. GEMOLOGIST has proven that he can win with a variety of styles, either right up front, or from a couple of lengths off the pace. As Skip Bayless says of Tim Tebow, all he does is win. He's a perfect 5 for 5, and even owns a graded stakes victory over this very track. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, finally got off the Derby schneid in 2010 with his colt Super Saver. If Bodemeister gets shuffled, keep your eyes open for rider Javier Castellano's white and green silks.
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